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Publications

To see my citation count, please visit my Google scholar page by clicking on the image below or the title above.  (Note: I have a relatively common name and Google sometimes misattributes papers to me.  From time to time, I prune the profile to remove these).

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Working papers

These are papers currently under review at academic journals

Mortality postponement and compression at older ages in human cohorts

With Po-Lin Wang.  Currently under review at PLoS One

Published papers

These are papers published in academic journals

Why changes in PBGC and FDIC premiums should not fully reflect changes in underlying risk (with some application to long-term private insurance contracts)

Forthcoming, North American Actuarial Journal

Wait your turn: pension incentives, workplace rules and strategic labor supply among Philadelphia municipal workers

With Po-Lin Wang.  Forthcoming in the Journal of Risk and Insurance

Generational Wealth Accounts: did public and private inter-generational transfers offset each other over the financial crisis?

With James Sefton, Ron Lee and Joze Sambt.  Published in the Economic Journal, 2022

Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy

With Ron Lee, Andy Mason and other members of the NTA project.  Published in the Population and Development Review, 2022

Pooling mortality risk in Eurozone state pension liabilities: an application of a Bayesian coherent multi-population cohort-based mortality model

WIth Po-Lin Wang.  Published in Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2021

80 will be the new 70: old-age mortality postponement in the US and its likely effect on the finances of the OASI program

Published in the Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2021

An analysis of period and cohort mortality shocks in international data

With Po-Lin Wang.  Published in the North American Actuarial Journal, 2021

Full Generational Accounts: What Do We Give to the Next Generation?

With Ron Lee, James Sefont and Jose Sambt.  Published in the Population and Development Review, 2017

The Theory of Optimal Stochastic Control as Applied to Insurance Underwriting Cycles

With David Eckles and Xudong Zeng.  Published in the North American Actuarial Journal, 2016

Is Low Fertility Really a Problem? Population Aging, Dependency, and Consumption

With Ron Lee, Andrew Mason and other members of the NTA project.  Published in Science, 2014

Optimal Portfolio Allocation for Corporate Pension Funds

With David Miles.  Published in European Financial Management, 2013

The Rationale for Occupational Pensions

Published in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2006

Pricing Pension Insurance

With Anthony Neuberger.  Published in Fiscal Studies, 2005

The Pension Protection Fund

With Anthony Neuberger.  Published in Fiscal Studies, 2005

A lifecycle analysis of defined benefit pension plans

Published in the Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 2003

Estimating International Adverse Selection in Annuities

With Olivia Mitchell.  Published in the North American Actuarial Journal, 2002

Asset Rich and Cash Poor: Residential Housing and Retirement Provision in Singapore

With Olivia Mitchell and John Piggott.  Published in the Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 2002

Policy work

These are selected policy papers.  For a full list please see my CV or Google scholar page.   Papers and legislation produced while I worked for the National Treasury in South Africa can be found on the National Treasury retirement reform webpage accessible here.

Pensions Policy: Evidence on Aspects of Savings Behaviour and Capital Markets (book)

With Anthony Neuberger.  Published by the Center for Economic Policy Research.

Lender of Last Resort Options for Scotland

With Angus Armstrong.  Published by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research.

The Economic Basis for the Regulation of Pensions

With Anthony Neuberger.  Published by the Department for Work and Pensions, UK.

The Optimal Allocation of Risks in Employment Contracts

Published by the Department for Work and Pensions, UK.

Household Portfolio Allocation: A Review of the Literature

Published by the ESRI, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan.

Generational Accounts for the United Kingdom

With Martin Weale and James Sefton.  Published by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London, UK.